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Data & Trends

Reduce Juvenile Detention

Data & Trends Targets & Projections Background Info

Targets

Target-setting is an important step in achieving positive outcomes for children, youth, families and the community. In order to achieve better results, leaders can commit to setting a measurable target and a timeframe for its accomplishment. When establishing targets consider the following questions:

  • Based on trend and projection data what is an achievable target?
  • How will the target be used?
    • As an inspiration for mobilizing public will and action?
    • As a benchmark for measuring performance and accountability?
  • Can targets be set for specific groups or regions within the state?
    • How will local targets be incorporated, if at all, into the state target?
    • What support can the state give to local entities to set and achieve targets?
  • How will racial disparities, geographic differences and other variations be considered?
  • What will ensure targets are appropriately set and used over time?

How can you prevent targets from being misused for punitive purposes or from leading to unintended consequences and poor practices?  

Projections

In order to achieve measureable results, it is essential to examine the direction in which a trend is likely to move.  Making projections allows policymakers to determine the current and future conditions and to set realistic and appropriate targets. When making these projections consider the following questions:

  • What do trends suggest about the current outcomes for children, families and communities?
  • What will juvenile detention look like in the near and distant future (for instance, after one year, three years and five years) if you continue on the current course?
  • Does the projected trend suggest positive conditions for children, youth and families?
  • If positive change is projected, is it significant? Is it enough?
  • What is the impact on communities, public systems and state budgets?

Virginia projects its adult and juvenile detention populations using its Offender Forecasting Process, a participative process involving policymakers, administrators and technical experts from all branches of government as well as corrections practitioners. 

The Legislative Budget Board of Texas produced Adult and Juvenile Corrections Population Projects, a report that provides updated correctional population projections for fiscal years 2009 through 2014 and serves as a basis for funding determinations.  Enhancements to past projections were made by conducting focus groups with juvenile justice practitioners to explore the current state of juvenile justice at the local level.

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The Vera Institute of Justice combines expertise in research, demonstration projects, and technical assistance to help leaders in government and civil society improve the systems people rely on for justice and safety.

states

projects the detention populations using its Offender Forecasting Process, a participative process involving policymakers, administrators and technical experts from all branches of government as well as corrections practitioners.