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Projections: Where Will Your State Be in 3, 5, or 10 Years?

In order to achieve measureable results, it is essential to examine the direction in which a trend is likely to move.  Making projections allows policymakers to determine the current and future conditions and set realistic and appropriate targets.

Questions to Consider.

  • What do the trends suggest about the current outcomes for children, families and communities?
  • What will college graduation rates look like in the near and distant future (for instance, after one year, three years and five years) if you continue on the current course?
  • Does the projected trend suggest positive conditions for children, youth and families? 
  • If positive change is projected, is it significant? Is it enough?
  • What is the impact on communities, public systems and state budgets?

What You Need to Know.

  • A Roadmap . Nearly half the states have joined the Complete College America initiative, in which they commit to set completion goals through 2020 and report common measures of progress.  Complete College America, in cooperation with the National Governors Association’s Complete to Compete Initiative , has developed a roadmap for states that includes a technical guide specific to the common metrics.
  • Data Resource . The Education Needs Index (ENI) is a regional-level study of educational, economic, and population pressures that influence educational policy and planning at local, regional, and state levels. The index introduces an econometric model that assesses conditions and trends for all fifty states and their respective sub-regions and allows peer comparisons across a variety of indicators.
  • Tools for Community Colleges .   Achieving the Dream - Community Colleges Count (ATD) is a bold national effort to help more community college students succeed, especially students of color and low-income students. ATD members (including 130 institutions in 24 states) can access the Data Access Tools which includes two main components:  (1) an institutional dashboard and institutional analytical tool (“institutional data tools”) and (2) a benchmark dashboard and benchmark analytical tool (“benchmark data tools”). The benchmark data tools give ATD members the ability to compare an institution’s student data against that of appropriate peer groups.

National Projections. The National Center for Higher Education Management Systems ( NCHEMS ) report on Closing the College Attainment Gap between the U.S. and Most Educated Countries, and the Contributions to be made by the States includes an estimate of the number of additional degrees each state must contribute to meet the goal of 8.2 million more degrees by 2020.