Projections: Third Grade Reading and Math Proficiency
Where Will Your State Be in 3, 5 or 10 Years?
Examining projections allows policymakers to see where the current course will take the state, if existing factors, influences, and strategies continue. Policymakers then can decide whether these outcomes are what they and their constituents want to achieve for third grade reading and math abilities. This projection may not be where you want to go, but where you are going.
Questions to Consider
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What will third grade reading and math scores be in five or more years, if you continue on the current course?
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Is this projection OK? If there are no changes, is this the direction you want to head? Are the anticipated conditions acceptable?
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Are the costs associated with this indicator likely to increase or decrease at a similar rate? Will those investments achieve returns?
What You Need to Know
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Examining the future for children and families of color and other groups can make a compelling case for change.
Projections for racial and ethnic groups, children with disabilities, immigrant children, low income children and other sub-sets often provide a very different picture of future academic success than general aggregate data.
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Maintaining a stable course may not be good enough.
When trends and projections are relatively flat, it can be tempting to settle for “good enough.” However, indicators represent actual children’s lives, and even flat trends can have an enormous impact on their futures.
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Programs may not reach their potential return on investment without the family factors that enhance success.
The return on investment studies included only programs with significant parent engagement but this aspect of the program results has not been adequately included.